Invest Positively

We reduce our PO on SPC to S$2 from S$10 to reflect our new cautious view on the Asian refining sector and SG Complex margin revisions in 2009/10. Additionally, we sight the company’s accounting complexity and rapidly rising working capital as major risks. Thus, we change our PO basis from DCF to trough cycle valuation applying 2.5x 2009E EV/EBITDA, which is a 50% discount to the sector’s benchmark valuation and implies 2009E P/B of 0.5x.

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Upgrading Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sach to Buy US Banks US Regional Banks

TsingTao Brewery China Auto Sector China Pole Position China Property China Sky Chemical Fibre China Steel Chinese Banks Hong Kong Consumers China Property China Steel

Ex-Fed chief says slew of rescue measures distasteful but necessary

Contempt of court may take many forms. PDF

‘Kangaroo in judge’s robe’ T-shirt at centre of case PDF

Is it enough for the financial community to disclose important information in the fine print, or to bury material data inside prospectuses, or to put all sorts of legal disclaimers on broking reports or offer documents, and then to hide behind the maxim of caveat emptor (buyer beware) when things go belly-up and the finger- pointing starts? By the same token, is it good enough for brokers to include ridiculous disclaimers on the cover of reports to the effect that those reports may be biased because the broker may have a business relationship with the company being covered? PDF

‘I am now offering people shorter haircuts. It’s so they will last longer,’ the stylist told Ms Chadha, author of The Cult of the Luxury Brand: Inside Asia’s Love Affair with Luxury. PDF

Beijing’s crackdown on mainland visits to Macau has begun eating into corporate earnings, with operating profit at the Wynn Macau falling at least 38.8 per cent in the quarter to September from the previous period, according to preliminary results released by the company yesterday. PDF

It cites hike in bad debt reserves, drop in winning share of money gambled PDF

Start to accumulate equities PDF

Stock picks in a global recession PDF

Factoring in bear market volumes ML JPM

A normal recession, back to 1855, lasts 18 months, not 10 PDF

Citi MS

Market unlikely to bottom before 2009; staying with a defensive stance PDF

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9 for '09: Marching on - Upgrade to Overweight PDF

Bailouts, Deleveraging and the Best Supercycle: What's Next? PDF

Asia remains too close to a cyclical peak to call a bottom PDF

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Deeper recessions in the US and UK, mild recession in the Eurozone PDF

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A soft-landing outlook appears to be reasonable, even in the face of the deteriorating economic outlook of the U.S. and the developed world. PDF

Najib as Prime Minister PDF

Morgan Stanley was too expensive for China’s sovereign wealth fund CIC, which has lost a lot of money in the past year. PDF

Regulators are preparing to adjust capital adequacy ratios to meet the specific needs of small- to medium-sized banks in China. PDF

Redrawing supervisory boundaries and relaxing controls would benefit China’s financial services sector – and its economy. PDF

In a landmark case, a former city food bureau chief is accused of corruption based on Web postings by whistleblowers. PDF

Liability and victim compensation rules are under scrutiny in the wake of China’s tainted milk case and similar incidents. PDF

China should turn to fiscal stimuli, ease its monetary policy, and develop a long-term plan for the capital market in order to handle the financial crisis. PDF

Now Citi, the United States investment bank, has launched a foreign exchange (FX) portal in Hong Kong, offering an integrated online foreign exchange trading platform, CitiFx, for active individual and small institutional traders. PDF

Twin Peaks! PDF

Co-ordinated action? PDF

Since May, conditions for developers have worsened – slowing demand,rising costs and tightening credit. We believe there is still some way to go before the dawn: major write-downs warranted by falling asset values could precipitate further share price underperformance. Growth could be impeded by non-availability and a higher cost of funding. We maintain our UNDERWEIGHT stance on the sector. PDF

The financial aid program of $700 billion to the beleaguered US financial industry that has been passed by the Senate, though House passage is anything but a given, raises at least one very interesting question: Whence the cash? PDF

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Risk of ‘total systemic financial meltdown’ still lies ahead, say economists PDF

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Equity markets crumble after the TARP is summarily rejected by Congress. PDF

Residential: Job losses to add to woes — The volatile stock market and potential job losses in the financial industries could result in a further 25% decline in the high-end residential segment. Prices in the mid-market could fall another 15%, while the mass market could start to see a decline of 5-10%. PDF

Demand for Singapore offices is likely to fall to recession-level lows next year and in 2010, resulting in the biggest excess supply of office space in 20 years, said Credit Suisse yesterday. PDF

Has the A-share market bottomed? It closed before this week’s holiday on a very positive note, rallying from a multi-year low of almost 1,800 points less than two weeks ago. Opinions are divided among investors about whether the market has tested the lows in this cycle. PDF

The financial-rescue plan intended to restore confidence in the U.S. banking system collapsed in partisan wrangling as the House of Representatives voted down the proposal backed by the Bush administration and congressional leaders of both parties. PDF

The defeat of the extraordinary $700 billion financial rescue package represented a perfect collision of the forces of modern politics -- a fast-moving Internet campaign, vulnerable incumbents, a weakened and unpopular president, and a roiling presidential campaign -- all working against the so-called Masters of the Universe.

U.S. stocks plunged and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled the most since the 1987 crash after the House of Representatives rejected a $700 billion plan to rescue the financial system. PDF

NEW YORK -- Looks like another Black Monday. PDF

THE head of China’s leading steel company says the Chinese economy and steel industry are both “heading for a downward slide”, as hopes fade that China can insulate Australia’s resource-dependent economy from the widening global downturn. PDF

I am hearing from Fed sources that two things are under consideration. One is a coordinated rate cut. Without the ECB and BOE joining the Fed it does not make sense for the Fed to go alone. The other is dollar intervention along with a rate cut. The decline in stock prices is hardly the problem today - except for equity managers. It is the frozen credit markets that have to be unglued.

First, the money rushed into hedge funds. Now, some fear, it could rush out. PDF

With breathtaking speed, the world of large Wall Street investment banks has vanished. Fabled firms, some more than a century old, have been merged out of existence (Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch), gone bankrupt (Lehman Brothers), or sought asylum as commercial bank holding companies (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley). Why on earth did this happen? PDF

Banks in Asia mostly dodged the ravages of the subprime mortgage meltdown but now must contend with depressed markets and a darkening economic picture resulting from the financial crisis plaguing the West. PDF

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It doesn’t rain, it pours PDF

Limited positive impact on banks but more headwinds for property market PDF

The rise of "cash" premium PDF

Speaking at the CLSA conference in Hong Kong, bearish Dr Marc Faber refrains from saying ‘I told you so’, and remains pessimistic about the global outlook for markets and economies. PDF

It was autumn, and the Red Indians on the remote reservation asked their new chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was a Red Indian chief in a modern society, he couldn’t tell what the weather was going to be. Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he told his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood to be prepared.

Management says business resilient, but dealers tell of ebbing confidence PDF

I take time and effort to gather and put up information at my blog. I like to share with people who appreciates my time energy spent. I will continue to share with people who shares and/or communicate with me in any way. Hence, I will remove access to Market News blog for those passive reader.

WASHINGTON - The proposal to bail out U.S. financial markets to the tune of up to $700 billion creates a lot of potential short-term winners, as well as some losers. PDF

Average monthly rent at Raffles Place slips 1.4% to $17.64 psf in Q3 PDF

Figures for the latest week suggest that Asia ex-Japan, especially Taiwan, saw consistent net outflows via mutual funds and foreign investors. We note that only China-related funds attracted net buying, while India- and Korea-related funds saw further steady net selling. PDF

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Value Trap PDF

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Blue = Western Red = Asian View PDF

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Extracting margins at every part of the value chain; Buy View PDF

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Opportunities in a Bear Market Rally View PDF

Strategies for Successful Bottom-fishing View PDF

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Falling oil and commodity prices prompted a dramatic fall in inflation expectations across all regions in the September survey and led to a sharp shift away from inflation-sensitive sectors, such as Basic Resources, toward defensives. View PDF

Fear about the global economy is increasingly evident, with many managers believing the global economy is already in recession (44%) or is likely to go into recession in the next 12 months (61%). View PDF

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Confidence to soar after Beijing places buy orders More in comments... View PDF

(XFN-ASIA) - Singapore-listed Guangzhao Industrial Forest Biotechnology Group said it has suspended trading amid a steep decline in its share price, adding that a prolonged suspension has raised the risk of default on a convertible notes issue. More in comments...

Proponents of rival concepts say that primitive emotions, herd mentality and raging hormones are among the invisible motors that help inflate an asset bubble and then prick it. View PDF