Will LionGold be a glittering investment?

Gold m miner LionGold Corp, with an unproven track record, continues to attract investor interest even though some broking houses are advising caution.

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Guanyu said…
Will LionGold be a glittering investment?

By FELDA CHAY
30 September 2011

Gold m miner LionGold Corp, with an unproven track record, continues to attract investor interest even though some broking houses are advising caution.

Brokers UOB-Kay Hian and CIMB Securities have sounded the alarm by imposing trading restrictions on the stock. Yet, yesterday, LionGold's shares rose 0.6 per cent, or half a cent, to 87 cents.

The rise means that the firm, which used to be known as The Think Environmental Co, has seen its share price jump by 52.6 per cent since December last year when it announced its first gold mining venture. Year-to-date, its shares are up 19.2 per cent - an excellent performance given that the equities market has done poorly this year.

UOB-Kay Hian, in introducing its trading restrictions on Tuesday, explained its move by saying that the counter is overvalued. LionGold may also experience some volatility given the recent upheavals in gold prices, it said.

One can certainly speculate how the brokerage reached the conclusion that the stock's value has gone too high. Prudence, however, will tell any investor that it's best to play it safe following such a sharp run-up in the stock price, especially when the company has little to show.

True, LionGold produced its first gold bar on Wednesday, something that it has described as 'an important milestone' and one that, in the minds of some, might be a sign of better things to come given that its target production is one million ounces of gold over five years. Yet this is a company that has previously tried to revamp itself, set numerous targets, and failed to meet them.

When it first launched its initial public offering in 2005, LionGold was an office equipment maker known as the Asia Tiger Group.

In 2009, when green issues hogged the headlines, it transformed into a renewable energy firm by taking a controlling interest in UK-based waste-to-energy specialist Think Greenergy Ltd in November that year.

Its stated aim was to build up to 20 waste-to-energy sites across the UK by 2012, with the first site targeted to be operational and revenue-generating by April 2010. The change in business focus led the company to brand itself under a new name: The Think Environmental Co.

Yet its plans on that front have come to nothing. It has not commenced its waste-to-energy operations, and its earnings remain very much reliant on the office equipment business.

For the first quarter of its fiscal year 2012 which ended on June 30, 2011, LionGold (then still known as Think Environmental) made a loss of $2.8 million on a drop in orders for office equipment. In FY2011, net profit fell to $938,000 from $2.9 million in FY2010.

Traders from CIMB Securities told BT that it is likely the company's uncertain future and unproven track record prompted the brokerage to stop clients from trading LionGold shares on margin.

Compared with the green technology business, gold mining is likely to be riskier and more challenging. As the chief executive of one mining firm, who wanted to stay unnamed, said: 'The mining business is all about luck. In fact, it is 90 per cent luck and 10 per cent skill.'

Maybe LionGold will get lucky this time round. Maybe it won't. But to investors who wish to gamble on that, be warned: The company's market value has increased $224.1 million since it went into gold in December last year. So far, all it has from its new business is a string of artisanal mines and mining licences that remain untested, and that one gold bar it produced. This will turn out to be one of the market's best finds, or one of its biggest disappointments.

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