TWO former senior employees of UOB Kay Hian Private Limited (UOBKH) were charged on Wednesday for allegedly lying to the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in relation to reports on a then Catalist aspirant. Lan Kang Ming, 38, and Wee Toon Lee, 34, each face three charges of providing MAS with false information in October 2018 in relation to due diligence reports on an unidentified company applying to list on the Catalist board of the Singapore Exchange. MAS said in a media statement on Wednesday that it was performing an onsite inspection of UOBKH between June and August 2018, to assess the latter's controls, policies and procedures in relation to its role as an issue manager for Initial Public Offering (IPOs). During the examination, Lan and Wee were said to have provided different versions of a due diligence report relating to background checks on a company applying to be listed on the Catalist board of the Singapore Exchange. UOBKH had acted as the issu...
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Benjamin Robertson
13 January 2014
Rebalancing will be the theme for the global economy this year, with a strengthening recovery in developed markets drawing attention and capital away from Asia, analysts say in their annual forecasts for the year ahead.
“The gap between Asian growth and G3 [US, Europe and Japan] growth is declining, so investing in Asia is no longer a no-brainer. It actually is something that requires a lot of brains to decide which country is actually attractive,” said Darius Kowalczyk, senior economist at Credit Agricole.
As US and European growth returns, the global economy needs to maintain its momentum while dealing with liquidity withdrawals under the US Federal Reserve’s tapering efforts, which will result in funds flowing from Asia to the US.
Tapering refers to the Fed’s pre-Christmas decision to begin reversing its financial-crisis-induced US bond buying programme. It was made because of improving US economic indices.
Understanding the repercussions of tapering, especially if mishandled, will drive markets over the coming year and beyond.
“The wall of money that the Fed has put into emerging markets because of quantitative easing is receding … and one of the key elements to our outlook this year and overriding a lot of the views we have … is this receding wall of capital,” said Mitul Kotecha, head of global market research for Asia at Credit Agricole.
US unemployment fell to a five-year low of 7 per cent in November, and the Fed predicts it will drop to 6.3 per cent by the end of this year. Analysts at Credit Agricole predict inflation in the US will move above 2 per cent and interest rates will start rising gradually later this year.
The gap between Asian growth and G3 [US, Europe and Japan] growth is declining, so investing in Asia is no longer a no-brainer
Darius Kowalczyk, Credit Agricole
Deutsche Bank forecasts US gross domestic product growth of 3 per cent this year. Developed economies’ consumer spending is also picking up, and this will help power Asian exporters while other sectors sag, said Taimur Baig, chief economist, Asia, at the bank.
“The pull from exports is coming at an opportune moment. The reason is the rest of the [Asian] economy is not particularly strong at this juncture … we are seeing a fairly lacklustre dynamic over the past year or so,” Baig said.
“Households in many parts of Asia … have significantly high leverage, and as a result of this leverage there are risks to consumption going into 2014, because rate normalisation is going to be a big theme for this year.”
Asia’s GDP growth rate is forecast by Fitch Ratings at 6.5 per cent, the strongest of any region but the slowest pace since the Asian crisis in 1998. If regional giants China and India are excluded, the credit rating agency projects growth in Asia to be just 5.1 per cent.
Analysts expect China’s GDP growth this year to be in the 7-8 per cent range, with concerns over bank and local government debt outweighed by potential economy-boosting measures like reforms to the financial sector, cutting private-sector red tape, and mass-market housing construction.
Andy Rothman of CLSA wrote in a recent report that 8 per cent of local government debt, equivalent to US$235 billion, is at risk of default, “but this is not a significant systemic risk”.
With slowing growth in Asia and tapering from the US, one area to watch will be the bond markets. As global capital is drawn to the US by rising treasury yields and a strengthening US dollar, Asian economies will need to rely more on domestic and regional investors to support local debt financing.
Last summer, fears of imminent tapering prompted a slump in equities and bonds and drops in regional currencies as foreign investors retreated. Analysts are particularly concerned about Asian countries with high deficits and low foreign currency reserves, such as India and Indonesia.