Shanghai investors wary of Hong Kong market

Through train fails to impress some mainlanders, who say they are unfamiliar with local regulations and are put off by higher share prices

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Guanyu said…
Shanghai investors wary of Hong Kong market

Through train fails to impress some mainlanders, who say they are unfamiliar with local regulations and are put off by higher share prices

Bloomberg in Shanghai
12 September 2014

Jiang Siqiang has a whole list of reasons he is not interested in shifting any of his money from the mainland’s equity markets into Hong Kong.

As the 67-year-old retiree sips tea and watches stock prices flicker across the screen at a brokerage in Shanghai, he ticks them off one by one. Shanghai shares tend to trade at cheaper valuations than those listed 1,224km to the south in the former British colony. Hong Kong’s market rules are unfamiliar, and he is also turned off by the poor track record of many mainland money managers who have bought foreign shares through the qualified domestic institutional investor programme (QDII).

“Even QDII funds are losing money overseas, and they are managed by experts,” Jiang said at a Changjiang Securities outlet in Shanghai’s Pudong district. “I wouldn’t buy Hong Kong stocks” any time soon.

Jiang’s misgivings provide a look into why 77 per cent of mainland investors surveyed by CLSA last month said they would not take part in a planned exchange link between Shanghai and Hong Kong. Their lack of interest contrasts with Hong Kong traders’ growing appetite for mainland stocks, which are luring record inflows through exchange-traded funds. That suggests Hong Kong shares are poised to underperform their Shanghai counterparts, according to Aviate Global, an institutional equity brokerage.

China, the biggest emerging economy, is counting on a successful exchange link to help liberalise its financial system, increase the role of the yuan and give its citizens more investment channels amid a slumping property market and increased risks from local wealth-management products.

The programme, set to start in October, allows a net 23.5 billion yuan (HK$30 billion) of daily cross-border purchases.

Yet the allure of Hong Kong shares has diminished since 2007, when a proposal allowing mainland investors to buy equities in the city, dubbed the through train, sent the benchmark Hang Seng Index up 60 per cent over three months before the plan was abandoned.

Dual-listed Chinese companies trade at a premium of about 6 per cent in Hong Kong over the mainland, versus a 44 per cent discount at the end of 2007, according to the Hang Seng China AH Premium index.

Further hurdles include the 500,000 yuan minimum account size for mainland investors to take part in the link, and the exclusion of small-cap stocks, favoured by speculative traders for their high volatility, according to CLSA and Aviate Global.

“Small retail investors won’t have too much interest in buying Hong Kong stocks under the programme,” said Wang Weijun, a strategist at Zheshang Securities in Shanghai.

Slumping demand for QDII funds, one of the few ways Chinese investors can gain access to stocks outside the mainland, is an indication of tepid interest in the exchange link, said Francis Cheung, the head of China and Hong Kong strategy at CLSA.

Assets in the funds dropped to 53 billion yuan at the end of the second quarter, the lowest level since 2011, according to Shanghai research firm Z-Ben Advisors.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong investors are already adding exposure to mainland shares through exchange-traded funds, betting that their valuation discounts will narrow as the exchange link makes it easier for arbitragers to move money between the markets. The two biggest ETFs tracking China’s yuan-denominated A shares, both listed in Hong Kong, lured about US$2.7 billion in the past two months, data showed.

Interest in the link may grow as mainland investors learn more about the Hong Kong market, said Sally Wong, chief executive of the Hong Kong Investment Fund Association.
Guanyu said…
“I won’t judge the success on day one,” she said. “It will depend on investor access to education and the pool of stocks available. You don’t want it to be like the through train in 2007, when investors rushed in. You want a more sustainable model.”

Mainland investors have only recently regained appetite for local shares after the Shanghai Composite Index lost US$460 billion of market value in the three years ended May, the most in the world, while almost five million stock accounts were liquidated.

The gauge has rebounded 16 per cent since mid-March and the pace of new account openings rose to a six-month high in the week ended August 22.

“We have all the bigger companies listed here, and many of them are cheaper than their Hong Kong stocks,” said Jiang. “I need to watch the Hong Kong stock market for a while. There’s no rush.”

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