Tough to follow Olam’s path out of short seller hell

A strategic investor willing to pay a premium is, by most measures, a pretty good way for Olam International to wash off the taint of Muddy Waters. But Olam’s journey through Purgatory may not be an easily repeated trek for other companies hoping to escape their own hostile-short seller hell.

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Guanyu said…
Tough to follow Olam’s path out of short seller hell

Kenneth Lim
29 August 2015

A strategic investor willing to pay a premium is, by most measures, a pretty good way for Olam International to wash off the taint of Muddy Waters. But Olam’s journey through Purgatory may not be an easily repeated trek for other companies hoping to escape their own hostile-short seller hell.

Olam, a soft commodity trader, said on Friday that Mitsubishi Corp was taking a 20 per cent stake at S$2.75 per share, a hefty 44 per cent premium to Olam’s Thursday last traded price of S$1.91. The news sent Olam’s shares rallying 8.4 per cent to S$2.07, about 20 per cent above where the stock was trading right before short seller Muddy Waters issued a critical report in 2012. If there was any lingering stain on the counter from Muddy Waters, Friday’s development probably cleared it up.

The Mitsubishi deal appears to be a good fit for both parties. For Olam, the cash injection gives it the elbow room to stick with its acquisition strategy. Mitsubishi gets board representation in a new partner that has access to emerging markets such as Africa. And both sides can partake in what looks to be a common view on the future of the industry and of Olam’s longer-gestating investments.

Of course, not all strategic investors are the same. That Mitsubishi is paying a large premium to current prices suggests that the Japanese group is looking at the distant horizon. Olam shareholders are therefore unlikely to face a replay of China Minzhong, which saw PT Indofood Sukses Makmur swoop in after the shares were depressed by short sellers only to cut its stake just over a year later.

Unfortunately for Noble Group and Silverlake Axis, two companies that have recently also come under attack by short sellers, an investor like Mitsubishi is not easy to come by. Noble, which trades mostly in hard commodities, will need a partner who has the courage and endurance to row against the currently receding Chinese tide. Silverlake, which offers software solutions, operates in a space that notoriously lacks long-term patience.

Noble and Silverlake also lack the big bait that Olam had to dangle before interested investors. Olam’s controlling shareholder happens to be Singapore government-owned investment firm Temasek Holdings, which will remain the majority shareholder after the Mitsubishi deal. Having a co-investor of that pedigree as part of the deal goes a long way.

Any spill over benefit from the Mitsubishi deal is unlikely to flow to Olam’s fellow comrades in the trenches against short sellers. The optimism is more likely to touch other agricultural players and Temasek-linked companies.
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